Brainysmurf is discussing the North Korean nuclear issue and his own patriotic reaction to criticism of the United States. It’s a good read… check it out and then come back here for my take on the whole shebang.

The six-nation summit in Beijing over the North Korean nuclear issue (which has now ended) has been, for the last couple of days, the lead story here, and I’ve gotten a smattering of opinions from Chinese military and foreign policy types thanks to interviews on CCTV-9 (sure, they’re sanitized, but at least they’re something). It has been interesting to note that, for the most part, the Chinese hold the same position as the United States - North Korea must get rid of its nuclear weapons in a verifiable, non-reversible way in order for it to return to even a semblance of good standing within the international community. The reasons for this, though, are a little different than the reasons given by the United States.

The United States’ primary concern is that North Korea, in desperate need of hard cash to buy modern military equipment (and, ostensibly, to improve its domestic infrastructure, though it doesn’t appear like many funds are going that way), will sell either completed nuclear weapons, weapons-grade uranium and plutonium, or the technology to make it to other states and various non-state actors (read: terrorists).

Beijing has a number of other issues with North Korea having nuclear weapons. First, they recognize that Kim Jong-il is as much a danger to them as he is to anyone else. While it is highly unlikely that he would actually strike the People’s Republic directly, it is somewhat likely that he would start a shooting war with South Korea and, by extension, the United States, something that China understandably does not want happening on their doorstep. China sees that the Bush administration is keen on military adventurism (though it is likely that the American military’s current overextension would keep the bulk of our ground forces out of any fighting in Korea, we would still be able to commit significant naval and air forces to the battle, as well as strategic nuclear forces should it come to that) and is probably more likely than any administration since the first Korean War to strike back when provoked by Pyongyang.

Second, and I think most important, is that China fears a remilitarized Japan. There is still quite a bit of animosity towards Japan among the Chinese population, and perhaps rightfully so - the atrocities committed by Imperial Japanese forces in China make the bombing of Pearl Harbor look like a playful tussle between friends. The Japanese, having already had a North Korean missile fly over their nation, are second only to South Korea among states that are most endangered by a nuclear-armed North Korea. Were Pyongyang to begin testing nuclear weapons, having already proven that they have delivery systems easily capable of reaching major Japanese population centers, nobody would blame Japan for rapidly expanding its own military capabilities to meet the threat. This would likely mean extending our missile defense to Asia (which the Bush Administration wants to do but which China vehemently opposes) and a rapid increase is defense spending and arms acquisition. While the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is by far the largest and most powerful fighting force in Asia today, in just a few years Japan, with the help of the United States and their own formidable industrial and technological capabilities, could easily eclipse them and become the region’s dominant military power. This is something that China, and the Chinese people, will not stand for. It’s also something that Japanese probably don’t want, given the costs involved in light of Japan’s ongoing economic problems. Pushed to the wall by a reckless North Korea, though, they would have little choice.

Now for the million dollar question: what is China going to do? Obviously, a nuclear North Korea is not in its best interests. In fact, it may be the single most detrimental development in China’s drive toward becoming a superpower. I think that, while not wanting to be seen as actively colluding with the United States, and certainly not wanting the United States to lead an Iraq-style regime change in North Korea, Beijing is going to have to tighten the screws in the coming months or face becoming irrelevant in the debate. China is, by far, in the best position of any state to do something about the problem - not only are they geographically close but they also provide the bulk of North Korea’s food and fuel oil, giving them significant leverage when it comes to negotiating terms. Ideally (for the Chinese, at least, and I don’t think it would be a half-bad resolution to the problem in general), they will find a way to get rid of Kim Jong-il and replace him with a Deng Xiaoping figure that can lead North Korean toward a path of stable development and economic growth - “socialism with Korean characteristics,” so to speak.

China needs to do something, and soon, or this issue may well escalate past Beijing’s ability to control it and be resolved not in luxurious conference rooms but on the ground, by soldiers, in a terribly costly repeat of a war that should have ended a half-century ago.

Posted by John on Friday, August 29th, 2003 at 5:41 pm.